PDP & BJP alliance: - Not so strange

Before announcement of J&K election result; no one predicted that PDP & BJP can form govt in state. On basis of past experiments in state, everyone speculated for PDP & Cong or NC & BJP alliance but as “Politics is art of impossible”. There are many reason for this alliance

Political System: -

Indian democracy is a Multi-Party and to make political games more interesting, even Independent candidates are allowed to contest election. Worldwide multiparty systems throw strange electoral results and after poll alliances. In Just concluded Greece election, Radical left party aligned with populist right wing party.

At the end of the day political parties’ goal is to govern and implement policies and not only just fight election and seat in opposition. This is not 1^st time such alliance formed in India; in recent time Nitish & Lalu or AAP & Cong alliance was on same line. In Past also many such example available like communist supported congress govt in 2004 or in 1989 Left & BJP both supported V.P.Singh Janta Dal govt and list goes on. In local body these combinations becomes more weird Like Shiv Sena in alliance with MIM or in past with Muslim League.

Forging such extreme alliances are not easy for political parties, especially when election are fought on issues like regional, religious identity and not on performance. For justifying such alliances either Common Minimum Program is agreed or political parties make segregation like alliance only at state or local bodies or at national level. In NDA2 Tamil Nadu parties claim alliance with BJP only at national level and same was Communist stand in UPA1. On same line PDP claim alliance only at state level and yet not joined NDA. In MH local body alliance seen many crisscross combinations.

State-Center relationship:-

Indian constitution designed a system such that every player is dependent on each other. State depends on center for resources and policy decision; whereas center depends on state for execution of schemes and implementation of policies. On Top of these Rajya Sabha (Upper House) is House of State and party in Power need support in upper house means support of states for Policy making. BJP will get 5 MP extra buffer in case of parliament joint session. North East; J&K or Union territories depend heavily on center for resources and that was reason behind PDP choosing BJP over Cong.

Sticking points:-

As Mufti said this alliance is of North and South Pole of politics. Between PDP & BJP there is no common ground,except development of state. Common minimum program is balanced and focused mostly around welfare of state. (Complete CMP) 

On main conflicting points AFSPA and 370 both side maintained status-quo. Some point like return of land held by Arm forces to resident seen PDP upper hand and other like delimitation; settlement of Pandit and refuge seen BJP upper hand. On paper everything look good but on ground things are not that smooth as in J&K Kashmir valley and Jammu region see divide on religious; regional and nationality aspiration line. In state there are many local; national and international player and everyone have own interest and strategies. Pakistan, China & Separatist will like to widen divide between Kashmir & Jammu (Muslim & Hindu); PDP & BJP will like to see calm in state; Muslim groups & NC will not like Jammu region get fair share of power; Jammu based activist & Congress will like to exploit each PDP move as anti-Jammu so overall in 1^st few month will be chaos and walking on tight rope for new Government.

PDP gain from alliance:-

PDP is individualistic party started by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and its main goal is to fulfill founder ambitions like other such parties (RJD; BJD; SS; TMC etc), ideology or issues just move around that goal. Mufti age is already 79 means this is last chance to become full-term CM. PDP leadership know their limitation; they are able to win only 28 seat even after so much anti-incumbency for NC & Cong ; Mismanagement in flood devastation and anti BJP environment in Kashmir. At this juncture PDP will be last party in state, willing for reelection and fear of reelection can even split any party. In J&K like sensitive state neither PDP nor BJP want an unstable, thin majority government so both parties preferred each other than going with congress or NC. Going with BJP will give PDP advantage of 6yr stable government, pushing issues like returning of land held by security forces even after lease end or review of AFSPA particularly in those areas which were calm in last few year. NE and J&K are PM Narendra Modi special focus areas means with extra funds, PDP will get credit and say in all big ticket development projects.

BJP gain from alliance:-

BJP understand that in short term, party will not be in power on their own. Party will have to align either with PDP or NC. BJP 1^st time got chance to have a say in J&K and party grabbed opportunity by both hands. By staying in opposition BJP will never able to push issues like settlement of Kashmiri pandits & migrants in state. Implementation of CMP points like RTI, State Vigilance commission, ST Ministry and ST status to Kollis, Chopans and Paharis; will gain sympathy for BJP even in Kashmir valley. BJP trying to expand base by giving Kashmir & Ladakh place in ministry from own quota. With 11 Minister, BJP will get many chances to expand base. Pakistan & J&K is pain in neck for all Indian PM and Narendra Modi will like to see peace on both China & Pakistan border. Alliance provided a golden chance for BJP to control things on Indian side of border. For BJP this is extension process started from emergency to make BJP more acceptable party for alliance which is congress core strength. Except Kerala in all other state BJP have one or more partners now or in past which is a good sign in achieving Congress Mukt Bharat.

Future of alliance :- 

 Alliance is based on best case scenario that Govt will speed up development and in next election both parties PDP & BJP can gain on development agenda. In numbers with 55 MLA, alliance is very stable but there will be many issues come up time to time. PDP & BJP both will try to make own voters happy by certain statement & action. Especially PDP will be aggressive to counter perception as their voter is anti BJP and Separatists, NC & congress will try to promote them as anti-Kashmir and anti-Muslim party. Early few days will be tricky as lot of media focus will be on alliance and state but soon things will be of routing.

I hope this government will complete full term with normal up and downs in PDP&BJP relationship; unless some serious conflict or sticking points arise .