Who is killing our farmers?

Because of LAB, suddenly Indian farming is a hot topic and at the center of all discussion, even PM Narendra Modi addressed this topic in his famous “Mann Ki Baat” Program. Actually these discussions are funny as LAB has nothing to do with farming or overall farmer community welfare. LAB whether 1894 or 2013 or 2015 will just change process how land will be allocated for projects and will not affect future prospects of agriculture or farmers. But when agenda is discussion and not actual solving problem then you can relate each and everything to discussion topic, like one political party linked even Rape like sensitive issue to election agenda of free wifi.

I am from farmer family and specifically from Vidharbha region of Maharashtra which is famously called as a “Graveyard of Farmer” because of high number of farmer suicide in last decade. Even though I am now settled in Pune, I travel frequently in region and now spent a 1 week in Yavatmal district which is one of worst hit by farmer suicide crisis. During my stay, I have talked to many people involved in various profession which include farmers, farm workers, part time farmers (Farming + Job like teacher) , shopkeepers, teacher, lawyer, businessman, traders of farm products etc and realized one important point, we need to stop emotionally analyzing/discussing agriculture  and need to ask hard question “Who is killing our farmers?”

I know this is tough question but let’s start with usual suspects or expected answer from opponents.

BJP: - Congress & Left always blamed BJP as anti-farmer party but data shows that not BJP but so called farmer messiah harmed farmers. Decade in which farmer forced to die was ruled by Cong and Left (UPA1) in center and two region which consistently top farmer suicide list, Maharashtra & Andhra Pradesh both was ruled by congress for 15 & 10 yr respectively. Communist (Left) who ruled West Bengal for 34yr was also not shown any model which can be replicated as ideal for rest of India and even people of West Bengal are forced to migrate out of state. In contrast to all this stories, BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh which was referred as “Bimaru” (ill) state during congress tenure is now leading in Agriculture growth. Gujarat like deserted state performing much better and above expectation. Most important question is, if after Indian independence most of the time “farmer messiahs” ruled nation and states then why farmers committing suicide?

Industry: - Many AC room activist blame Industry as farmer enemy or pitch this topic as farmer Vs industry fight but conveniently forgetting that Vidharbha or Rural AP or Bundelkhand are areas which have not seen any industrialization or land takeover for Govt or Private projects. Farmers are committing suicide in rural India and not in area near by heavily industrialized cities.

One clear point, either we as a nation analyzing topic in wrong direction or we are misguided by people who are pretending to be framer well-wishers. Biggest Irony of agriculture sector is that it is represented by people who are neither successful farmers nor created a model which will give a prosperous futures to framers. Even if we forget intentions of people who are leading farmer agitation or AC room activist then also it is like some passionate air traveler lecturing on health of aviation industry. In case an industry is in crisis then whom we will approach? Caption Gopinath who created an Air Deccan as successful business model or Vijay Mallya whose Kingfisher is down to dust or someone who like to see Aviation industry on discovery TV.

So we need to change our analyzing points.

1. Stop being emotional about farming and farmers when analyzing agriculture, “No More slogan like Jai Kissan”; it’s just yet another industry which is in crisis.
2. Change AC Room Activist and representatives who are leading or talking about agriculture industry; interact with farmers who are successful in agriculture or people who successfully taken alternative path rather than committing suicide by staying in farming.

My own family story is in 2^nd category, my father unlike his 2 brother decided to leave traditional farming as per person land owned by family member was shrinking. This decision paid off as family got another income source and specifically my family got access to better education and other facility. When it came to our education, my father sold ancestral land and house; this decision paid off as both me and my brother earning much higher and even living better quality of life. Story of my 2 uncle who decided to stay in farming is same like any other farmer family, not much progress and quality of life remain same even after 30yr. This is not a corner case but almost all farmer families have same story and if we as a nation (especially AC Room activist) forcing people to stay in farming rather than providing alternative jobs and opportunities then we are forcing our farmers to commit suicide.

When it comes to solution, we are forced to believe that loan and money is only problem of agriculture industry and one after another government just either go for loan waiver or some package. In my view this is dumbest approach, tell me one industry in world which progressed because of bailout packages? Governments are giving packages to PSU year after year but experience shows, none of PSU progressed as we have not dealt with inherent problems of industry and just try to hide problem by giving packages. In agriculture industry same story is getting repeated from independence.

Above analysis show we are doing everything wrong in case of farming and this mistake is getting repeated as agriculture is only industry where experts and activist are not successful farmers. Let’s analyze farming like any another industry.

Excess Manpower: - 

Agriculture is only industry in which there is excess manpower than industry can accommodate. Excess manpower is not because people are skilled or passionate but population is stuck because there is no alternative jobs available in rural India and this unskilled manpower from generation know only farming. Land is transferred from one generation to another so farm size per family member is shrinking rapidly which makes farming expensive and unprofitable. We need to move and utilize excess manpower in other industry such as manufacturing and processing which need unskilled labors in large number. Moving excess manpower in other industries specifically in agriculture product processing will not only reduce load on agriculture but even help in increasing family income of farmer and labors. Industry will make sure that rural economy start booming which in turn increase farmer investment capacity with better prices for farm product.

In United Kingdom when industrial revolution started around 80% manpower was in agriculture; man power rapidly shifted to other industries and less than 25% manpower remained in agriculture. This migration helped both agriculture and other industries and we have seen a major boost in industrial production and per capita Income of citize

Population over Dependency on agriculture :-

Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry and fisheries account for Less than 14% of GDP but more than 60% population directly dependent on these industries, this shows how income is unevenly distributed which result in poor quality of life. Agriculture is mostly dependent on nature and hence a large section of population impact because of natural disasters like drought or floods and government need to compensate with higher subsidies and packages. This over dependency make a land emotional commodity and any move to allocate land to other sectors is meet with stiff resistance which hamper other industry growth and nation progress . LAB show; how opposition and activist making land allocation an emotional issue rather than evaluating compensation and logic of national growth. We will need to reduce this dependency by either moving man power to other sectors or promoting supportive businesses like dairy products, poultry, goat farming, fishery etc. Even industries which can provide part time jobs to farmer families in their own villages will be helpful like food product processing or assembling of electronics and other product.

Water, Electricity and other raw materials: - 

Industries progress only if get abundant supply of raw materials, this simple fact lead us towards Indian agriculture inherent problem of dependency on rain water. India’s only 36% land comes under irrigation and mainly concentrated in smaller states like Punjab( 98%) & Haryana (88%) , this is the main reason why agriculture is a unpredictable and loss making industry. In Uttar Pradesh like big states, even though irrigation is at 76% but utilization of this capacity not possible as state have around 16% power deficit and after domestic and industry, agriculture power supply get last priority like Seeds, fertilizer, equipment’s etc supply and quality is another challenge, import of machinery increase overall operation cost of agriculture. Current NDA government ambitious schemes like Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana which is aim at 100% irrigation, Push for Solar and nuclear power to make India power surplus by 2019 and Make in India which will help in producing farm equipment’s locally if achieved by 2019 then a major agriculture progress blocked will get removed.

Supply Side constrained: -

Even if an industry is performing well but if output supply chain is not managed properly then ultimately industry will collapse Ex Nokia collapsed because market product needs changed. Agriculture industry supply chain is more crucial as Industry outputs are perishable. India is losing almost 20% of total production or 50K Cr output because of lack of infrastructure like proper roads, cold storage and transport facilities for fruits and vegetables. Lack of food processing industry in rural areas is a main reason that farmer need to sell products at lower cost as there is no specific consumer for perishable product Ex If a Tomato Katchup factory is nearby town then farmers know how much input factory will need and can plan crop, this model will help factory as they will save transportation cost. Processing industries convert perishable product into forms which can be stored for longer duration like frozen green peas can be stored for longer duration. So rural infrastructure improvement, creation of storage facility, food processing industries and most important is linking of Agriculture supply to direct local and international markets will be important steps to get farmer a reasonable price for their products.

Land Productivity: -

In agriculture industry land is main constrained and as urbanization & industrialization increasing, agriculture land is shrinking. India have world’s 2^nd largest cultivated land after USA but our overall agriculture production is much less compare to other countries and reason is our per hector yield Ex Australia’s(10800 KG) per hector rice production is almost 5 times of India’s (2240 KG) even after India doubled production from 1970 levels(1123 KG). This shows our problem is not agriculture land and product prices but main problem is productivity. Many countries produce 2 to 10 time per hector yield than India in different products. Many developed countries with smaller population  show us that even after diverting 5% land and 50% man power to other sectors, we can produce much more agriculture products and fulfill domestic demands and even export to add $$$ to countries economy.

We need food so farmer should stay poor and live poor quality life in rural India without access to roads, electricity, education, healthcare etc is emotional and cruel thinking. Farmers have all rights to live quality life which any metro citizen get. We as a nation need to make Agriculture a profitable industry so that Indian farmer compete in global market without the support of packages and loan waivers. If Rural India get same infrastructure facility like Metro cities then we will see educated class moving towards rural India and Agriculture as profession.

Hope we can defeat AC room activist and Farmer Messiahs like congress, communist who are scaring rural India and stopping entry of Industries which will open a new gate of job and growth opportunities for farmers and their families. In past these people played same future fear game with Mumbai mill workers and we have seen how lives of hundreds of people was destroyed. This is important juncture and we will need to raise voices against our farmer killers.

Electoral Reforms: - What suits for India?

India is world’s largest democracy and it is not just largest but hug and unprecedented experiment world ever seen. India’s population only comparable to nondemocratic China, Democratic USA stand at a distant 3rd place with 1/4th of the Indian population, so Indian democracy can’t copy concept from other countries and need own ways ahead. Overall Indian democracy performed much better than British or western world expectation set at the time of Indian Independence. Pakistan and India started the journey together on the path of democracy but Pakistan failed miserably on this experiment whereas India except emergency era continued the journey on the path of strengthening democracy. Even people fight to restore democracy in emergency era shown Indian public deep faith on Democratic systems.

Elections are the important part of the democratic process and India scores high on the free and fair election but chances of improvement are always there. Ministry of Law & Justice in January 2013, requested Law commission to consider the issue of electoral reforms in its entirety and suggest comprehensive measures for changes in the law. Commission on 12^th March 2015 submitted detail report of 201-Pages on Electoral Reforms, proposing wide-ranging reforms on the variety of issues such as election finance, candidate expenditure limits, disclosure obligations, penalties and state funding of elections. The report was prepared after due consideration and deliberations with stakeholders, including political parties and extensive and in-depth analysis of various issues.

Visit for the summary of commission report of http://netindian.in/news/2015/03/12/00032974/law-commission-submits-report-electoral-reforms-proposes-wide-ranging-chang

The commission suggested few good points but in some areas lacked objectivity, below I tried to touch each point suggested by the commission and analyze considering practical realities and size of Indian democracy.

Independent Candidates

This is most important and good recommendation by Commission, to disbar independent candidates from contesting elections. All past election shows, how the provision of allowing independent candidate is misused and impact overall outcome of the election. In 2014 LS total 3235 independent candidate contested and only 3 candidates able to win, 9 was on 2^nd  and 20 at a 3^rd position; means 99% Independent candidates come into the category of “not serious contender”. Independent candidates add confusion to overall electoral process and even cost for exchequer by increasing number of EVM required & maintains of records. 

Only disbarring independent candidates will not be an effective solution unless we curb political parties from contesting elections. In India registration of political party is very easy and hence used as the loophole for impacting electoral process. In 2014 LS total 464 parties contested and only 35 able to win at least one seat, 391 parties were such that forget about winning, their candidates were not even in top 3 in any of 543 LS seats. 185 parties field just 1 candidate each and able to win 3 seats out of contested 185, 6 on 2^nd & 4 on 3^rd position; 83 parties field 2 candidates each and able to win just 2 seats out of contested 166, 5 on 2^nd & 5 on 3^rd position. Even though Independents & dummy parties don’t win the election but these candidate impact result of seats in multi-corner fights or low margin wins. Independents and parties with 1 or 2 candidate capture 2.4 Cr total vote which is 4^th largest in the nation. 

Above table shows how the number of parties contesting election are growing continuously so with independents, even need some restriction on political parties for contesting the election. Few measures can be implemented such as registration at least 5yr old before the party can contest election or only state-recognized parties can contest Lok Sabha and parties with Minimum 5% votes in local body elections can contest state election and other criteria can be included so that only serious parties and candidate contest election.

Election Finance

The commission focused more on transparency rather than providing the practical approach to parties and candidate for raising funding and legal means to meet increasing election expenses. Impractical restriction always lead to either finding loopholes or using illegal means. In parliament election with constituency size of average 15.33 lakh voter (exceptions like Malkajgiri in Telangana 32 lakh voter), it’s hard to manage candidate expenditure within the limit of just 70 lakh, which translate 2.20 to 4.55 Rs per voter, at this rate candidate can’t even send a postcard to the voter. Out of 543, only 8 constituencies have less than 5lakh voter means most candidate gets less than 14 Rs per voter as election expense and this lead to using illegal means or understate of expenses. On election finance most important reform will increase candidate expanse limit 50 to 100 Rs per voter and year on year increase of 10%(Or linked with inflation index), for transparency make it mandatory to announce resources of expenses.

Anti-Defection Law 

The commission recommended instead of the speaker, President or Governor action on the advice of ECI in case of disqualification on the ground of defection. If accepted this will be a good move as the speaker is always from ruling party and hence decisions are based on party lines, Latest Bihar events are the best example to understand how decisions are twisted by the speaker. We can expect more balance decisions from President and Governor as those are the constitutional post.

Election Petitions

The commission suggested few very good mechanisms for expediting Election Petitions like the daily trial, Minimizing adjournments, a time limit of 45 days to file a written statement, conclude the trial within six months etc. All recommendations are good and government can accept those but judiciary role will be important as in past judiciary rejected PM Narendra Modi proposal of fast-tracking cases against elected representatives.

Totaliser for Counting of Votes

Commission endorsed ECI’s suggestion for introducing a totalizer for counting of votes to prevent harassment of voters in areas where voting trends in each polling station can be determined. Totaliser will be good implementation as it will harm vote bank politics as parties will not come to know which areas voter voted to which candidate but this will even impact political parties’ poll preparation as without knowing areas of weakness and strength, it will be hard to prepare and utilize organization strength.

Proportional representation

The commission suggested examining the possibility of Proportional representation to bring more representative, while the current FPTP (First Past The Post) system brings stability. At this juncture country need stability, anyway with the multiparty system and independent candidates allowed to contest, we don’t have the problem of representation to all section. PR with party list method can be worth trying as this will discourage individual based parties and pre-poll alliances.

Restriction on Government Sponsored Advertisements & Number of Seats from which a Candidate May Contest

Commission suggestion on both these issues are cosmetic and irrelevant; restriction on Government advertisement in last 6 month is a good step but keeps loophole of permission for advertisement of poverty alleviation programs so this restriction will become just yet another provision. A candidate contesting multiple seats is not a big issue as in every election only 1-2 candidate contest from multiple seats and even win. Like in 2014 LS only 2 candidates able to win from both seat. So overall any such restriction will not make a big impact one or other way.

Compulsory Voting; Right to Recall; NOTA and Right to Reject

Commission rejected the proposal of compulsory voting on basis of the practicality of implementation and Right to recall, Right to reject on basis of future chaos. We are running world’s largest democracy so before recommending or experimenting policies, we need to think about implications and practicality of implementations. We will need to find out ways to increase voting percentage rather than legally making voting compulsory and adding punishment provisions. Right to recall & right to reject both are theoretically fancy but practically harmful provisions, worldwide no democracy implemented these on large scale, not even in countries with Small population size, India with 85 Cr voters will need to find out better mechanisms for improving productivity of representatives rather than adding provisions which can lead to instability.

Use of Common Electoral Rolls

Commission recommended common electoral rolls for Parliamentary, Assembly and local body elections. Good suggestion as this will lead to uniformity in reducing cost and avoidance of mismanagement which causes because of handling of same data at multiple levels.

Regulation of Political Parties and Inner Party Democracy

   

Even though commission suggested some cosmetic changes in the law but no point in discussing these recommendations, as the issue is not of legal provision but overall our political system not ready for these implementations. In all political parties, party heads get elected unopposed even after legal provisions, this means our party system needs more maturity before we push inner party democracy through law changes.

PDP & BJP alliance: - Not so strange

Before announcement of J&K election result; no one predicted that PDP & BJP can form govt in state. On basis of past experiments in state, everyone speculated for PDP & Cong or NC & BJP alliance but as “Politics is art of impossible”. There are many reason for this alliance

Political System: -

Indian democracy is a Multi-Party and to make political games more interesting, even Independent candidates are allowed to contest election. Worldwide multiparty systems throw strange electoral results and after poll alliances. In Just concluded Greece election, Radical left party aligned with populist right wing party.

At the end of the day political parties’ goal is to govern and implement policies and not only just fight election and seat in opposition. This is not 1^st time such alliance formed in India; in recent time Nitish & Lalu or AAP & Cong alliance was on same line. In Past also many such example available like communist supported congress govt in 2004 or in 1989 Left & BJP both supported V.P.Singh Janta Dal govt and list goes on. In local body these combinations becomes more weird Like Shiv Sena in alliance with MIM or in past with Muslim League.

Forging such extreme alliances are not easy for political parties, especially when election are fought on issues like regional, religious identity and not on performance. For justifying such alliances either Common Minimum Program is agreed or political parties make segregation like alliance only at state or local bodies or at national level. In NDA2 Tamil Nadu parties claim alliance with BJP only at national level and same was Communist stand in UPA1. On same line PDP claim alliance only at state level and yet not joined NDA. In MH local body alliance seen many crisscross combinations.

State-Center relationship:-

Indian constitution designed a system such that every player is dependent on each other. State depends on center for resources and policy decision; whereas center depends on state for execution of schemes and implementation of policies. On Top of these Rajya Sabha (Upper House) is House of State and party in Power need support in upper house means support of states for Policy making. BJP will get 5 MP extra buffer in case of parliament joint session. North East; J&K or Union territories depend heavily on center for resources and that was reason behind PDP choosing BJP over Cong.

Sticking points:-

As Mufti said this alliance is of North and South Pole of politics. Between PDP & BJP there is no common ground,except development of state. Common minimum program is balanced and focused mostly around welfare of state. (Complete CMP) 

On main conflicting points AFSPA and 370 both side maintained status-quo. Some point like return of land held by Arm forces to resident seen PDP upper hand and other like delimitation; settlement of Pandit and refuge seen BJP upper hand. On paper everything look good but on ground things are not that smooth as in J&K Kashmir valley and Jammu region see divide on religious; regional and nationality aspiration line. In state there are many local; national and international player and everyone have own interest and strategies. Pakistan, China & Separatist will like to widen divide between Kashmir & Jammu (Muslim & Hindu); PDP & BJP will like to see calm in state; Muslim groups & NC will not like Jammu region get fair share of power; Jammu based activist & Congress will like to exploit each PDP move as anti-Jammu so overall in 1^st few month will be chaos and walking on tight rope for new Government.

PDP gain from alliance:-

PDP is individualistic party started by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and its main goal is to fulfill founder ambitions like other such parties (RJD; BJD; SS; TMC etc), ideology or issues just move around that goal. Mufti age is already 79 means this is last chance to become full-term CM. PDP leadership know their limitation; they are able to win only 28 seat even after so much anti-incumbency for NC & Cong ; Mismanagement in flood devastation and anti BJP environment in Kashmir. At this juncture PDP will be last party in state, willing for reelection and fear of reelection can even split any party. In J&K like sensitive state neither PDP nor BJP want an unstable, thin majority government so both parties preferred each other than going with congress or NC. Going with BJP will give PDP advantage of 6yr stable government, pushing issues like returning of land held by security forces even after lease end or review of AFSPA particularly in those areas which were calm in last few year. NE and J&K are PM Narendra Modi special focus areas means with extra funds, PDP will get credit and say in all big ticket development projects.

BJP gain from alliance:-

BJP understand that in short term, party will not be in power on their own. Party will have to align either with PDP or NC. BJP 1^st time got chance to have a say in J&K and party grabbed opportunity by both hands. By staying in opposition BJP will never able to push issues like settlement of Kashmiri pandits & migrants in state. Implementation of CMP points like RTI, State Vigilance commission, ST Ministry and ST status to Kollis, Chopans and Paharis; will gain sympathy for BJP even in Kashmir valley. BJP trying to expand base by giving Kashmir & Ladakh place in ministry from own quota. With 11 Minister, BJP will get many chances to expand base. Pakistan & J&K is pain in neck for all Indian PM and Narendra Modi will like to see peace on both China & Pakistan border. Alliance provided a golden chance for BJP to control things on Indian side of border. For BJP this is extension process started from emergency to make BJP more acceptable party for alliance which is congress core strength. Except Kerala in all other state BJP have one or more partners now or in past which is a good sign in achieving Congress Mukt Bharat.

Future of alliance :- 

 Alliance is based on best case scenario that Govt will speed up development and in next election both parties PDP & BJP can gain on development agenda. In numbers with 55 MLA, alliance is very stable but there will be many issues come up time to time. PDP & BJP both will try to make own voters happy by certain statement & action. Especially PDP will be aggressive to counter perception as their voter is anti BJP and Separatists, NC & congress will try to promote them as anti-Kashmir and anti-Muslim party. Early few days will be tricky as lot of media focus will be on alliance and state but soon things will be of routing.

I hope this government will complete full term with normal up and downs in PDP&BJP relationship; unless some serious conflict or sticking points arise .